LABOR has lost the unloseable election after big swings against the party in Queensland, an unexpectedly poor showing in Victoria and immediate calls for Bill Shorten to be replaced as leader.
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"It's very hard to see how Labor can possibly win government. At the moment the Labor party can't reach majority government," said veteran ABC election analyst Antony Green shortly before 9pm after hours of a Coalition blue wash across the nation.
One of the few bright spots for Labor on an otherwise shock night of results was independent Zali Steggall's victory over former prime minister Tony Abbott in Warringah, ending his 25 years as a member of parliament including as one of the most divisive politicians of the past decade.
From as early as 7.30pm shadow foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong expressed concern as expected swings to Labor didn't eventuate and the Coalition picked up seats in Queensland's south east that Labor had expected to win.
"Western Australia is going to be in the frame in a way it hasn't been in a few elections," Senator Wong said.
Veteran Labor MP Brendan O'Connor conceded at 9pm that it was "a tough night for us, there's no easy path to an absolute majority".
By 10pm Mr O'Connor was ready to concede Labor had lost the election.
"Clearly the negative campaigning against us has worked," Mr O'Connor said.
By 9.30pm the Coalition held 72 seats - four short of the target needed to form government - Labor held 59 and independents held six.
Government ministers expected to struggle to retain their seats, including Peter Dutton, Josh Frydenberg and Greg Hunt, were comfortably returned while Labor members across the country experienced unexpected swings against them, notably Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon who experienced a primary vote swing against him of nearly 15 per cent.
"It looks like the government has lost one or two seats to independents, may lose one or two seats to Labor, but it's also picking up a bunch of seats from Labor," Antony Green said.
"If Labor doesn't win this election, they can look at their figures in Queensland and ask what went wrong in Queensland."
Former Coalition foreign minister Julie Bishop said Prime Minister Scott Morrison would be immortalised if he was "able to find the goat track back" to returning the Coalition to government.
While there were tears at the Federal Labor reception at Hyatt Place, Melbourne as the expected fairytale win for the party turned into a nightmare, there were already questions about whether Bill Shorten's personal unpopularity was a factor in Labor's very poor showing.
Shadow regional development spokesman Anthony Albanese, who lost a leadership fight with Mr Shorten in 2013, fended off questions on a Nine panel while conceding the results were far short of what Labor had expected.
Julie Bishop pushed Mr Albanese on the leadership issue, saying he was the "quintessential" Labor MP and the night's results made another leadership battle inevitable.
Liberal veteran Arthur Sinodinos said the result represented a "realignment of politics in Australia", with workers supporting the Coalition because of its focus on jobs and taxes.
Tony Abbott described the Coalition's unexpectedly strong showing as "a really extraordinary result, a great result for Scott Morrison".
"Tonight we can be extraordinarily confident, more confident than we had any right to expect, that we will have continued Liberal/National government," Mr Abbott said.
He acknowledged that climate change was an issue in the election, but "where climate change is a moral issue, we Liberals do it tough, where climate change is an economic issue, we do very, very well".
The independent who beat him, Zali Steggall, said Warringah "has definitely voted for the future".
"You've all shown when communities want change, they make it happen. This is a win for moderates with a heart. We have a new beginning for our environment. I will be a climate leader for you," Ms Steggall said.
