Regional NSW named top spot for future property price growth

The report, from comparison site Canstar and property analysts Hotspotting, said that property markets in regional NSW were benefitting from the "exodus to affordable lifestyle" currently underway in Australia, with vacancy rates low and prices increasing as result.

"Regional NSW is one of the locations to experience the dominant trend impacting real estate markets across Australia - the 'Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle', which sees residents of the biggest cities relocating to smaller cities and regional areas," Hotspotting's Terry Ryder, who co-produced the report, wrote.

"More recently, the trend has expanded to include more distant regional areas that offer lifestyle benefits at prices enticing to Sydney buyers. These include Lake Macquarie and the Hunter Valley outside Newcastle; coastal centres such as Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Port Stephens and the South Coast towns; and inland regional centres such as Orange, Bathurst, Mudgee and Dubbo."

The report nominated NSW cities and towns including Dubbo, Goulburn and Tolland (in Wagga Wagga) as being among the "most promising" for price growth in 2022.

"The rental market is tight in Dubbo and increases in rents and sales volumes are leading to a faster pace of price growth recently," Mr Ryder said.

The suburb of Tolland has rental yields above 5 per cent, according to Mr Ryder, and affordable sales prices "which are destined to rise as buyer demand increases, boosted by a major expansion of local medical, transport, resources and energy infrastructure".

The report ranks locations based on five key metrics. These are sales volumes, quarterly price growth, vacancy rates, rental growth and infrastructure spending.

Regional Queensland and regional Western Australia also made the report's top three list for future price growth.

Regional Victoria was ranked tenth out of the 14 markets analysed, and regional Tasmania 12th.

Mr Ryder said that regional Victoria had already witnessed strong growth prior to the pandemic, suggesting that the market had less room to run in the year ahead.

"Regional Victoria got on its growth path ahead of the pandemic boom that has swept the nation and many of its locations have had exceptional growth already over multiple years," he wrote.

Despite this, some parts of regional Victoria still looked promising for future gains.

"The inner suburb of Flora Hill [in Bendigo] has seen sales levels double in the past year and prices have responded, with a 6.4% increase in the median price to $415,000 in the most recent quarter," Mr Ryder wrote.

"Warrnambool offers good infrastructure and the affordable lifestyle sought by many buyers, putting upward pressure on its median house price, currently sitting at $425,000. It rose by 13.2% in the 12 months to 1 August," according to Mr Ryder.

Regional Tasmania had also seen a surge in values prior to the pandemic, leaving less room for growth, Mr Ryder wrote.

"The metrics for Regional Tasmania reflect the reality that this market has experienced three to four years of strong growth already and perhaps the peak has been passed. Certainly, the sales volumes data suggests this is the case."

There are still some suburbs in Launceston that show signs of growth potential though, including Newnham and Mowbray.

"The level of median price growth in Newnham in the most recent quarter, relative to annual price growth, suggests the rate of growth is accelerating. Vacancies are low and rents are rising strongly, as are sales volumes. Nearby Mowbray is showing rising growth levels in response to ongoing increases in sales activity," he wrote.