INDONESIA is reviewing a ban on coal exports it introduced to bolster a shortage of stockpiles the government feared would lead to blackouts.
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But if the ban is continued, analysts say the global market will push prices even higher as Indonesia's customers look to other suppliers - mainly Australia, Russia and Mongolia - for replacement supplies.
Most Australian thermal coal is shipped from Newcastle, which shifted a provisional 157.3 million tonnes (mt) in 2021.
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Of this, 111.3mt went through PWCS and 46mt was shipped by NCIG - reduced to one of two shiploaders until July because of storm damage.
This compares with 158mt in 2020 and a record 164.9mt in 2019.
Indonesia exports about 450mt of coal a year, overtaking Australia - at under 400mt - to become the world's biggest coal exporter by volume. Indonesian sales to China hit a reported 177mt between January and November last year.
Coal companies in Indonesia must sell 25 per cent of their production to the government's monopoly power company, Perusahaan Listrik Negara, at a maximum price of $US70 a tonne - well under this year's peak of about $US250 a tonne, and the present price of about $US160.
Indonesia's biggest thermal coal customers are China and India, followed by Japan and South Korea. Australia's biggest customer is Japan, and sales to China have all but stopped since an unofficial ban was ordered in late 2020.
Although China is one of the countries blamed for softening an "end coal" communique from Glasgow COP26, it is also building solar, wind and hydro projects at an enormous rate.
One project, the Fengning pumped hydro plant near Chengde, north of Beijing, had the first of two stages put into operation late last month.
Operator State Grid Corporation says 12 reversible pump/turbine units on the lower reservoir will give an eventual capacity of 3600 megawatts, capable of generating 3.4 terrawatt-hours a year.
At the same time, the station will use about 4.5 terrawatt-hours a year of power to pump water to the upper reservoir.
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