The Hunter is at an historical crossroads. How the region meets the imminent challenges associated with the closure of coal-fired power stations coupled with the decline of its economic lifeline, the coal industry, will shape its destiny for generations to come.
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Business leaders, mayors, MPs and economists agree, the time to act is now if we are to avoid the worst consequences from the economic and social upheaval that could result from rapid energy transition.
The Hunter Jobs Alliance, which has researched energy transitions overseas, argues the region must develop a comprehensive and well-coordinated transition strategy that brings together all levels of government, business and industry and the community.
No one should be left behind as the region moves to a more diverse future. To this end, job creation, retraining and targeted financial support need to be key components of the strategy.
The Hunter Region, which provides the state government with billions of dollars in coal royalties annually, finally needs to receive an increased share of that wealth to assist it meet the social and economic challenges that lie ahead.
"We are seeing something that humanity has never seen before...," the federal government's adviser on low-emissions technologies Alan Finkel said.
"The complete change in energy systems is happening globally. The first thing I think Australians have to know is that we want to be participants in that and not get left behind. The second is it pays to plan and be strategic."
In the past week Origin Energy announced it was bringing forward the closure of Eraring Power Station, which employs about 400 people, by seven years to 2025.
"The accelerated phase-out reinforces the need for all levels of government to support our community to transition our economy and capitalise on new and emerging opportunities," Lake Macquarie Mayor Kay Fraser said in response to the announcement.
Lake Macquarie MP Greg Piper said the announcement would have far-reaching implications across the region.
"This decision does not impact on Eraring employees alone but those in associated industries, including Centennial Coal, which provides coal to Origin's Eraring operations. This is a day we knew was coming but is now coming way sooner than was thought."
The Eraring announcement followed on from the news that AGL's Bayswater power station, which employs more than 600 people, was unlikely to operate beyond 2030. And it could happen sooner if an attempt by billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes Canadian asset manager Brookfield are successful in their attempt to buy the company.
In a few short years the concept of an energy transition has changed from being a theoretical panacea offered by climate activists to an everyday reality affecting the lives of thousands of Hunter residents.
An estimated 14,000 people rely in some way on the region's mining and coal-fired power generation industries.
They are families with mortgages living in communities throughout the region, they are small business operators in places like Muswellbrook, Singleton and Kurri whose customers are employed at mines and power stations, they are students who are wondering what their future holds as a result of the decline of fossil fuel-related industries.
Yes, the promise of new clean energy and manufacturing jobs beckons. As part of its response to the early closure of Eraring, the state government announced a $250 million commitment over five years to ensure local manufacture of new energy infrastructure.
It is estimated the initiative will provide up to 3700 jobs in future industry and renewable energy.
But most experts agree there won't be as many clean energy jobs as those that will be lost in closure of fossil fuel-based industries.Nor will they be as highly paid.
For example, the federal government's $600 million gas peaking plant at Kurri will employ about 10 people to operate.
"In 50 years, you will have a beautiful, sustainable essentially rural landscape that offers sustainable incomes, but not a lot of them," University of Western Sydney social geographer Phillip O'Neill told the Newcastle Herald.
"We can argue about the pace of transition, but the reality is we must prepare now for the social and economic changes that are heading our way."
Those who have experienced energy transitions warn that those regions that prepare will fare much better than those that don't.
"When we look at other regions, often they don't get organised, get coherent as a community or start to work on the practical things that are required like attracting new jobs or investment until they hit a crisis point," Hunter Jobs Alliance coordinator Warrick Jordan said.
"The history or regional structural change is that it is often very late in the process when people identify that there is a challenge and then it's hard to learn the things that need to be done or implement the things to ensure the community is on the same page."
While an energy transition will invariably focus on energy production, Peter Hille who leads a non-profit economic development organisation based in the Appalachian region of the US, said successful transitions engaged all sectors of the community.
"We are talking about a whole suite of economic sectors that are part of recreating a thriving community," he said.
"We talk about clean energy, but we also talk about healthcare. We talk about local foods. We talk about tourism. We talk about the creative economy. We talk about the role that broadband can play in making it possible for people to work from anywhere."
As part of its response the state government has created a $25 million Royalties for Rejuvenation fund to drive job creation and provide community support in coal mining communities as they make the transition to a clean energy economy over coming decades.
The Hunter Jobs Alliance is among those offered a place on an interim expert panel to advise on the use of the fund. The alliance has also been lobbying for the establishment of Hunter statutory authority that would be able to respond to specific regional and community needs as they arise.
"The key issue (regarding how we respond to transition) is that is that it is durable and lasts over the long term," Mr Jordan said.
"This is a challenge that is going to be ongoing for 10 or 20 years. The sky is not falling in tomorrow. But it is a long term challenge and we need to have institutions and capacity that reflect that and not be subject to political cycles or cuts and changes in funding or whatever it might be."
The model was endorsed by the NSW parliamentary committee that looked at the sustainability of the state's energy supply.
It's recommendations included the appointment of a coordinator to manage the development of energy transition plans for communities that will be impacted by the transition.
Professor O'Neill cites the BHP Pathways program that was set up to assist 900 workers retrain and find new employment following the closure of the Newcastle steelworks in 1999 as the basis of a transition strategy.
The key elements of the seven point strategy are: allow plenty of time for the transition; a retraining program for coal and power industry workers; family welfare support; local development initiatives; regional development initiatives; site rehabilitation; a commitment by all levels of government to work together.
But as 26-year-old electrical fitter Nathan Clements, who is broadening his career prospects by studying commerce, says, strategies and models are only as good as the results that they produce.
"There's this statistic from the closure of BHP, a third of the workers found full time work again, a third entered casual work and the remaining third remained unemployed. I just look at the current situation and wonder, is a similar statistic inevitable and does it have to be," he said.
Few will disagree that the Hunter has enormous potential to transform itself into one of the world's clean energy powerhouses.
While there will be challenges in coming decades, a clear vision backed by practical planning done now will pay dividends for future generations.
"It will take longer than the optimists are hoping but it will be much faster than the pessimists are predicting," Professor Finkel said.
"It is feeling slow as it's happening but in 2050 when we look back we will say, "Gosh, that was fast back in the 2020s."
This report appears as part of the Newcastle Herald's 'Power and the Passion' special report investigating the Hunter's energy transition away from coal-fired power to renewable energy alternatives. Read the full series here, and listen to the Voice of Real Australia podcast, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your preferred platform.
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