Hunter New England Health district: second Omicron wave expected to surpass January peak across the region

And, University of Newcastle research and public health physician Dr Craig Dalton believes that's not even close to the full picture - as his FluTracking program reveals the newest strain is rapidly replacing the first.

"It's currently exceeding the first wave across Australia in terms of total cough and fever rates," he said.

"Omicron is primarily the main virus circulating at the moment, there are other viruses circulating, but they can't explain the huge increase."

The FluTracking program is a national surveillance system that uses data from the public to predict the onset of respiratory illnesses and unpack just how serious the diseases will be.

Data reveals that in the week ending March 20, 1.5 per cent of people in the HNEH district recorded cough and fever symptoms - matching January figures.

As they continue to rise, Dr Dalton expects the second wave to outstrip those numbers across the region.

The district recorded 2046 cases in the 24 hours to to 4pm on Sunday, and 2011 the day before that.

Easier to spread and catch, the new Omicron sub-variant BA.2 is hitting school children aged five to 17 at levels usually seen in a winter flu epidemic, Dr Dalton said.

"Just over one in every 25 school-aged children reported cough and fever last week, and there were more with milder illness," he said.

"This was expected with a return to school but has been supercharged by the BA.2 Omicron variant. It appears to be seeking out and finding every last susceptible person."

Relaxed restrictions around mask-wearing and the ability to socialise again, combined with a return-to-school have seen the region's case numbers skyrocket.

That's particularly prevalent among young people who have a higher transmission risk transmission in group settings like daycare or school.

There appears to be two roads ahead, Dr Dalton said, either milder variants of COVID-19 will come around like the flu each year, or the country could be thrown back into mayhem in a 'Black Swan event' with highly virulent variants.

"Perhaps it might be that we don't need to vaccinate people again," he said.

"We won't know yet and it will take quite a while to know whether it will require regular vaccine or whether you just get a primary course and from then on your immunity is adequate to face subsequent infections.

"I think a Black Swan is something we don't expect, a real Black Swan event would be reverting back to a really nasty strain that evades vaccines, basically going back to early 2020 and that kind of scenario."

As the flu season approaches, Dr Dalton expects it will be easier to control with measures like mask-wearing and staying at home when sick.

Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content: