Surfest 2022: Contest could be back in Newcastle Harbour if a 7 to 8 metre swell closes out Merewether Beach

Contest organisers this afternoon described the impending swell as six metres or more but online surf website Surfline has updated its detailed forecast to have the swell peaking at 7.8 metres on Friday night before dropping down during the day to six metres.

Friday is April 1, or April Fool's Day, but the contest organisers have cleared the move with maritime authorities, paving the way for the return of pro surfing to the harbour for the first time since 2013.

The winds are predicted to be between 30kmh to 50kmh from Thursday through to Sunday, and the harbour is one of the few breaks in the region that could produce good waves in that wind if the swell is big enough.

Indicators are the swell buoys swinging like pendulums as the swell pushes into Stockton Bight with enough of it refracting around the end of the Nobbys breakwall to produce waves heading back the other way again at one single section of shallow rock bottom that protrudes on the northern side of the breakwall.

Aware of the looming giant surf for some days, the Surfest crew spoke with Newcastle MP Tim Crakanthorp, who arranged a meeting with the management at the Port of Newcastle, and the Port Authority of NSW - which still controls the navigation and pilotage of commercial shipping in the port - about moving the contest to the breakwall.

Another meeting is scheduled with Newcastle police on Tuesday morning to accommodate their input into the logistics of moving the contest from its site at Merewether Beach.

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The harbour break is a regular attraction when the swell is big enough to make it happen, and regularly draws a big crowd - often in stormy conditions - to watch the skilled and the crazy riding the short but hollow wave that rears off a slab of rock about 150 metres beyond the gun emplacement at the foot of Nobbys headland.

The increasingly accurate computer driven models at the heart of modern weather forecasting have been forecasting this swell for more than a week.

A new detailed forecast today by Surfline forecaster Ben McCartney says this week could see "the craziest start to April for years" - as far as surfing goes - with a low pressure system developing over the South Coral Sea.

He predicts the low will then track to the south-east, adding energy to an east to nor-east swell that produced above average waves at the contest site yesterday for the contestants in the first-ever Challenge Her Teams Classic - run by Surfing NSW in conjunction with Surfest - and for entrants familiarising themselves with the conditions before the main contests start tomorrow.

McCartney says that swell will then be over-ridden by the heavy southerly swell, which is still forecast to be four metres or more on Sunday, finals day for the men's City of Newcastle Pro and the women's AAP Consulting Pro.

Surfest claims the second last day of the 2013 contest as a world record, describing it as "the only professional surfing contest ever been held inside a shipping harbour".

Unfortunately, spectators will not be allowed onto the breakwall if the event does move there, but all of the surfing action will be broadcast live on the Surfest webcast.

After the meeting, Mr Crakanthorp - himself a keen surfer - said he was glad to have been able to help.

It's a wonderful event at Merewether, but I'm sure it will be a spectacular backup if it moves to the harbour," Mr Crakanthorp said.

"I really appreciate the Port Authority and the Port of Newcastle looking into this.

"The weather doesn't always behave the way you want it to and to have this as an option is terrific."

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