STATE OF PLAY AHEAD OF THE MAY 21, 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION
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THE NUMBERS:
House of Representatives (151 members)
* 23 Liberal National Party of Queensland
* 43 Liberal Party of Australia
* 10 The Nationals
(* 76 in total for coalition government)
* 68 Australian Labor Party
* 1 Australian Greens (Adam Bandt)
* 1 Centre Alliance (Rebekha Sharkie)
* 1 United Australia Party (Craig Kelly)
* 3 independent (Zali Steggall, Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines)
* 1 Katter's Australian Party (Bob Katter)
WHAT'S HAPPENED ELECTORALLY SINCE 2019?
* Redistribution: WA has lost a seat (Stirling, held by the Liberals) and Victoria has gained a seat (Hawke, which is notionally a Labor gain).
* By-elections: Groom was retained by the LNP. Eden-Monaro was retained by Labor.
* Hughes MP Craig Kelly (elected as a Liberal in 2019) joined Clive Palmer's United Australia Party.
* Labor changed leader from Bill Shorten to Anthony Albanese.
* At state and territory elections, Labor retained government in NT, ACT, Queensland and WA, and the Liberals were returned in Tasmania. Liberals lost government to Labor in SA.
* So-called "teal" independents - running a well-funded campaign on climate change, integrity and women's safety - have gained a high profile across a number of Liberal-held seats.
WHAT'S NEEDED FOR LABOR TO WIN?
Labor holds 68 seats but with the new seat of Hawke starts the election with a notional 69. It needs 76 seats for a majority, a net gain of seven. Given the largely progressive policy platforms of the independents, a tied vote (as occurred in 2010) would likely result in a Labor minority government.
WHAT'S NEEDED FOR THE COALITION TO WIN?
The Liberal-National coalition starts with 75 seats after the axing of the WA electorate of Stirling. It will need a net one-seat gain to be able to retain government.
THE OTHER PARTIES
* The Nationals are widely expected to hold existing seats.
* Clive Palmer's United Australia Party could hold Hughes, but is not expected to gain any other lower house seats.
* The Greens are expected to hold Melbourne but not gain any other lower house seats.
WHAT RECORDS COULD THE ELECTION SET?
* Defeat for Labor will be the fourth successive loss and mean the ALP has won majority government only once in the past 10 elections.
* If Scott Morrison wins, he will be the first incumbent prime minister to win two elections in a row since John Howard in 2004. Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull were all removed by their parties.
* A minority parliament would be the first since 2010 and the third since 1943.
TARGET SEATS
Liberals - Hughes, Gilmore, Parramatta, Hunter (NSW), Lyons (Tasmania), Corangamite (Victoria), Lingiari (NT).
Labor - Pearce, Hasluck, Swan (WA), Chisholm and Hawke (Victoria), Bass, Braddon (Tasmania), Brisbane, Longman, Leichhardt and Ryan (Queensland), Boothby (SA), Reid, Bennelong, Robertson (NSW).
Australian Associated Press
