Simon Holmes a Court says Climate 200 could back candidate in Scott Morrison's seat of Cook, Georgia Steele open to running

The former Prime Minister was absent during the first week of the new parliament, prompting speculation of an imminent departure from politics which would spark a race for the Sydney seat of Cook.

And an independent who ran in neighbouring Hughes, which also includes the Sutherland Shire, says "nothing is off the table" when it comes to a tilt at Mr Morrison's seat.

Mr Morrison lost office in May partly due to so-called teal independents, a group of Climate 200-backed female candidates seizing on climate change inertia and anger at men's mistreatment of women in parliament.

He also suffered a swing in Cook, but retained the seat with a thumping 12.4 per cent margin.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton in May told Sky News he expected to see a byelection in the seat "at some stage".

Mr Holmes a Court stressed Climate 200, which funded 11 successful campaigns across both houses in May, did not approach candidates to run, instead funding already established campaigns.

He revealed the group had yet to be approached by a movement from Cook, but confirmed he would support one if it matched the group's criteria.

But he warned the United Australia Party's relative failure - it had just one senator elected despite a heavy outlay - showed "just throwing money" at seats without grass-roots momentum was counterproductive.

"We wait to see a fire and then we accelerate it, we throw petrol on [it]," he said.

"If you just threw petrol on barren ground, nothing would happen. You're wasting petrol and you destroy the ground."

He dismissed suggestions a successful push for the seat was unthinkable, comparing it to Indi, previously held by Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella before it elected independents at four consecutive polls.

"If someone had looked at Indi in back 2012 ... people would have said it's not possible," he said.

"But a group of people started organising and got the community engaged and excited about true representation.

"All it takes is a committed group of people to start organising."

The regional Victorian seat is different to Cook in a number of ways; it is older on average, less wealthy, less religious, and has significantly fewer residents speaking a language other than English at home, data collated by The Guardian and Griffith University shows.

The four Sydney electorates to fall to independents since the 2019 election - Warringah, Wentworth, North Sydney, and Mackellar - bear more resemblance in terms of age and income.

But their voters are more likely to identify as having "no religion" and, except for North Sydney, significantly less linguistically diverse.

The largest faith or non-faith bloc in Cook is Catholic, at 24.6 per cent, similar to the neighbouring seat of Hughes, where Climate 200-backed independent Georgia Steele picked up just 14 per cent of the primary vote.

But Ms Steele was in a sense running against two incumbents, with sitting MP Craig Kelly failing to retain the seat for the UAP, having won it for the Liberals in 2019.

Liberal Jenny Ware won with 57 per cent of the two-party vote.

Ms Steele said "nothing is off the table" when it came to potentially running in Cook, and she was "always interested in doing what I can to serve my community".

The independent said any campaign could quickly marshal a network of Shire residents who volunteered for her in Hughes.

"If I think that I can make a contribution, and the community wants me to do that, then I'd never rule it out," she said.

Ms Steele said, while the "very homogeneous" Shire made up a significant part of both electorates, their outer-edges were distinct.

Hughes' boundaries incorporate part of south-west Sydney, but Cook included affluent areas like Cronulla, which Ms Hughes said were more comparable to Wentworth and Warringah.

She conceded Cook is more socially conservative than other seats which fell to the teals, but argued the Liberals benefited from running a sitting Prime Minister with a strong local vote against no serious independent challenge

Those two factors would not apply in a by-election.

"During the campaign, a lot of people approached me asking if anyone was going to be running in Cook, or whether I knew anyone who was interested in running as an independent in Cook," she said.

"There did seem to be some appetite for it there ... In that sense, it makes an interesting prospect."

Mr Morrison's absence from parliament, despite pledging to represent the people of Cook "to the best of my capability", could also hamper the Liberals, she said.

"He's absolutely nowhere to be seen," she said.

"So if he keeps up that kind of level of representation, combined with the inconvenience of having to vote in a byelection, there could be a swing against [the Liberals]."

Director of Redbridge Kos Samaras, who did polling for Climate 200, said Ms Steele stood a "much better chance" in Cook than Hughes, which was more "rusted on conservative" than the former prime minister's electorate.

Ms Samaras said highly religious voters were overwhelmingly likely to stick with the Liberals even in Mr Morrison's absence, but a swing to the Greens in May showed a "serious [independent] offering" could sway enough of Cook's 54,000 Liberal voters to make the race competitive.

"On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being Wentworth, I'd say Cook is a seven," he said.

But he said the timing of a by-election would have a significant impact on her prospects, with the Liberals' standing "not great" in the immediate post-election period.

"If it were to occur in 18-months' time, different story. But if it was to occur in the next few months, or even early next year, then it'd be interesting," he said.

Five million Australians voting for independents and minor parties, and post-election polling showing the majority approved of a larger crossbench, showed an increasing desire for a "third way", he said.

"The potential for haemorrhaging is there whenever the system gets stressed, because people have seen an alternate option, and they like it," he said.

"You're not going to get a surge to Labor in Cook, but there is a greater chance of them opting for an independent."

Mr Morrison did not respond to requests for comment.