The Albanese government has had a successful first seven months in office by several measures. It has achieved success by proceeding at a steady rather than a frantic pace. The steadiness has done it no harm and has been part of its success. It has also been cautious in its approach and the jury is out whether this caution is part of its success or whether it has been successful despite such caution.
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Anthony Albanese's success has occurred both in the parliament and in the electorate. He is riding high into Christmas.
In the parliament the government has successfully legislated most election promises. Its numerical control of the House of Representatives has ensured easy passage of bills even when opposed by Peter Dutton's opposition. But despite this Albanese has gone to some trouble not to freeze out the crossbench; he has reached out to them even when, as in the case of industrial relations reform or the national integrity commission, they have not all approved of the direction the government is taking.
This has translated into electoral success through a very healthy lead in the public opinion polls, like this month's Essential Poll. The government is better placed now than it was in May. Labor is up and the Coalition down. Albanese himself has a very high approval to disapproval rating (60-27, producing a net margin of +33) and a healthy lead over Dutton. The government has just passed through its honeymoon period.
Not everyone agrees that the government has proceeded steadily. In both its confrontations with the business community - over industrial relations and energy market intervention - it has been accused of moving too quickly and conducting too little community consultation. Some in the parliament wanted bills split, delaying controversial elements for further consultation. But the government pushed the bills through after agreeing to concessions to the crossbench.
Overall though the pace has been steady and due parliamentary process followed. In some cases, such as the Voice to Parliament, progress may have been too slow. But Linda Burney, Minister for Indigenous Affairs, has argued that the pace has been dictated by the need not to get ahead of the consultation process with expert committees and the Indigenous community more broadly. This may be one area where the government should proceed at greater speed in 2023.
In other areas, such as the energy market intervention and compensation for badly affected consumers, the government took its time deciding on its preferred approach and resisted criticism after the October budget to act more quickly. This was steadiness in action.
Associated with steadiness has been caution. In various areas it has taken small rather than large steps. It has nibbled at issues, moving one step at a time, such as with withdrawing charges against Bernard Collaery and the Mugappan family from Biloela, rather than taking a broader brush to problems. Other whistleblower issues have been left unresolved, and many other asylum seekers and refugees have been left on temporary visas. To the relief of advocates it now looks as though the latter will be addressed in the new year.
Albanese personally has been an important part of his government's success. His development and acceptance by the Australian community has been one of the surprises of the political year. His evolution has been documented by Kathryn Murphy in her Quarterly Essay, Lone Wolf. He is a conspicuous example of late flowering after more than 25 years in Parliament, an old dog learning new tricks. His many doubters, both within his own Labor ranks and the general community, have been silenced by his calm, statesmanlike demeanour.
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He has learned to be a team player and that team has remained unified and performed strongly. Compared with the fractious Coalition, the Labor cabinet has been distinguished by its calmness in addressing problems and responding to critics. The new Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, previously little known, has exemplified this approach. This has also applied both to the older hands, like Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek, and the emerging ministers like Clare O'Neill and the Treasury/Finance team of Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher. Composure and clear communication are the norm.
Will this successful seven months translate into the whole three-year term and beyond? That depends on the Labor government retaining its advantage over the Coalition and satisfying the crossbench and the public.
Over time the advantage established at the May federal election and confirmed by the Victorian state election will be diluted. The Labor Party election review reckoned, like every serious analyst, that the Scott Morrison factor was the main element in the defeat of the Coalition government. He will become less of a factor over time.
The Liberal Party election review damned the Liberals for being out of touch with modern Australia. Elements of this disconnect include its lack of connection with women. However the Liberals choose to respond to this diagnosis its cultural deficiencies won't be solved before the 2025 election.
For Labor to continue to be successful it must not rest on its laurels but examine its own connection with modern Australia. In doing so it must remember that one-third of Australian voters voted for neither major party at the May election. Labor won only 32.6 per cent of the primary vote and doesn't own the connection to modern Australia, especially young Australians.
Modern Australia appears to have been satisfied with steady progress in 2022; greater speed and boldness may be called for in 2023.
- John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University.
John Warhurst
John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University and a regular columnist for The Canberra Times.
John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University and a regular columnist for The Canberra Times.
