Reserve Bank of Australia indicates interest rate pause

In its clearest sign yet the relentless sequence of rate hikes since May last year might be coming to an end, the members of the RBA board agreed at their March 7 gathering to "reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy", according to minutes of the meeting.

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the share of household disposable income going on scheduled mortgage repayments had increased 1.1 percentage points last year but, even without any more rate hikes, repayments would take an extra 1.5 percentage point bite from family budgets by the end of next year as more than 880,000 loans switched from fixed to variable terms.

"Only 45 per cent of the rise in the cash rate to date had passed through to total scheduled payments at the end of 2022," Mr Kent told a public forum on Monday.

"The bank will continue to closely monitor the transmission of monetary policy and its impact on household spending, the labour market and inflation."

One of the factors influencing the decision will be developments in global financial markets, where jitters about bank failures and bailouts in the US and Europe appeared to ease following the $4.85 billion acquisition of troubled Credit Suisse by Swiss banking giant UBS.

With nervousness easing, expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate increase late this week have strengthened.

Improved sentiment about the strength of the financial system has come amid signs that conditions in the domestic economy are continuing to soften.

Consumer confidence remains very weak, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index, which fell 0.5 of a point last week to 76.5 points, its third consecutive sub-80 point reading.

Manufacturers, meanwhile, are grappling with rising costs and expect new orders to weaken as higher interest rates and inflation crimp demand, according to the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry-Westpac survey of industrial trends.

The survey found firms are "deeply pessimistic" about the outlook and expect business conditions to deteriorate in the next six months, with access to finance becoming a 'material' concern for an increasing number as interest rates rise.

The RBA minutes show while inflation remained "too high", the central bank believes the combination of high interest rates, falling house prices and rising living costs is dampening household spending and contributing to sluggish growth.

But the RBA board is wary that the ready availability of work and the quantity of savings accumulated during the pandemic could help support spending.

"It [is] not yet possible to determine how these various considerations would balance out," the minutes said. "At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and the board's assessment of the outlook."

Westpac expects the central bank will pause rates next month before implementing a 0.25 percentage point increase in May.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the board minutes supported the case for putting rates on hold in April but subsequent updates on inflation pressures in the economy will convince the RBA board to hike to 3.85 per cent at its May 2 meeting.

The prospect of a rates pause has come amid mounting concern about the financial pressure on households, particularly low-income families.

Anglicare Australia said the well-off will derive the greatest benefit from the stage three tax cuts due to come into effect next year, with the most hard-pressed households and regions largely missing out.

Its analysis shows around 31.5 per cent of those living in the ACT will benefit from the tax change, compared with just 13.89 per cent of South Australians and 12.1 per cent of Tasmanians.

"The stage 3 tax cuts are most likely to benefit high income earners who live in wealthy areas of Australia's largest capital cities. Those getting no benefit from the changes are more likely to live in poorer rural areas," the report said.

Prominent economist Chris Richardson urged greater action to combat poverty, including by increasing the JobSeeker allowance.

Mr Richardson said every extra dollar added to JobSeeker had an enormous impact on incomes for the most disadvantaged families and provided a "truly remarkable bang-for-the-buck in policy terms".

He said raising increasing the JobSeeker allowance would not only help individual families but deliver more money to low income suburbs and regions and, by reducing inequality, speed economic growth.