Sporting Declaration: Time for Knights to seize the day

That's the question Sporting Declaration has been pondering this week after trying to make sense of a competition ladder in which some teams have already had two byes, while others are still waiting for their first chance to spend a week in Bali.

After 13 rounds, Penrith occupied pole position with seven wins from their first 11 games, while the Broncos, who had won nine of 13, were sitting third.

South Sydney, with eight wins from 13 starts, were two rungs further down the pecking order in equal fifth position.

It's all as clear as mud, and raises the issue of why there is any need to allocate points for byes.

All I know is that come the full-time siren of the last game in the last preliminary round of the season, all teams will have played 24 times and received the same number of byes, and those with the most wins will qualify for the business end of proceedings.

Whether the Knights are involved remains to be seen.

They are certainly in contention, currently sitting 12^th on the ladder, just a single point adrift of the eighth-placed Warriors, after five wins and a draw from their first 12 games.

But history would suggest Newcastle have little room for error over the second half of the season. For starters, they will probably need to bank another seven wins, given that a 50-50 win-loss ratio is usually the basis for play-off entry.

Even that might not be enough. Last year Canberra finished eighth with 14 wins, ahead of the Broncos (13 wins) and St George Illawarra (12 wins).

Twelve months earlier, however, Gold Coast Titans somehow flummed eighth spot after winning only 10 of their 24 round games.

While the cut-off point is a variable, the bottom line is that the Knights will need to win more of their next 12 games than they did in the first half of the season.

That is within the realms of possibility and, indeed, Adam O'Brien's troops have been there, done that.

In 2021, the Knights had only five victories to their name at the midway point in the season, but rallied to win seven of their next 12 fixtures - including a five-match unbeaten streak - to secure a finals berth a week ahead of schedule.

This is largely the same group of players, and the same coach, so they should know what is required.

But to have any chance of reaching the necessary points tally, Newcastle will in all likelihood need to start stringing together consecutive wins, something they haven't managed since the opening two rounds of last season.

They will also have to navigate what appears a daunting draw, starting when they return to action after the bye against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium next weekend.

After Brisbane, the Knights then face Sydney Roosters (home), Penrith (away), Canterbury (away), bye, Wests Tigers (home), Melbourne (home), Canberra (away), Dolphins (away), Canterbury (home), South Sydney (home), Cronulla (home) and St George Illawarra (away).

Now, for the sake of the argument, let's just say they beat the Bulldogs twice, the Tigers and Dragons.

That means they will still probably need to win three of their remaining games against the Broncos, Roosters, Panthers, Storm, Raiders, Dolphins, Rabbitohs and Sharks.

It strikes me as a tall order, but stranger things have happened.

The next three games could well define Newcastle's season.

Only their most parochial fans will give them a chance at Suncorp, where the Broncos have been ruthlessly putting visiting teams to the sword this year.

A week later, they host the Roosters, who must surely be due to start living up to expectations after a tardy start to this campaign. Both teams, incidentally, will be without their State of Origin representatives.

After the Roosters, it's onto Penrith Stadium, where the Panthers have lost just four of 39 home games in the past four years.

The Knights, who have won just one of their past 13 games against the reigning premiers, might be lucky enough to catch the Panthers with a depleted squad in the wake of Origin II.

Nonetheless, it's an imposing three-game stretch for any team, one that could well determine whether Newcastle are genuine play-off contenders.

They can't afford to emerge from these next three games empty-handed. Nobody wants to be playing catch-up in the race for the eight.

Just as the points table is confusing, so is Newcastle's position on it. But for the sake of some stray goalkicking, the Knights could be two or three wins better off already.

And they spent six games without their main man, Kalyn Ponga, during his much-publicised concussion-related absence.

Now Ponga is back, gradually regaining form and confidence, and the selectors have done Newcastle a massive favour by overlooking him for State of Origin, along with Dane Gagai and Daniel and Jacob Saifiti, all of whom have featured in recent series.

Next Saturday at Suncorp would seem as good a time as any for the Knights to confirm they're still alive and kicking.

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