Hunter farmers in drought zones are on a "knife's edge" and need more rain - which has so far appeared in the form of isolated storms - to relieve pressure on the coming year, an Upper Hunter producer says.
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While many parts of the region remain classified as being in "drought" or "intense drought" by the NSW Department of Primary Industries, patches of land appear to be green thanks to storms which have left some properties looking healthy in parts and brown in others.
Farmers who spoke with the Newcastle Herald this week warned that the greenery could be deceiving and the land remained in need of a good soaking within the next two months.
"It's a bit of a crystal ball situation," said Ron Campbell, who runs a property at Merriwa.
"We're not out of the woods. In varying areas there have been some good individual [rain] falls. If you're underneath that storm, happy days."
Mr Campbell said he received 38mm of rain in December, 34mm in November, 18mm in October and none in September - and those "small amounts of rain disappear very quickly".
It meant that while there was growth, it "browned off" quickly because there was no moisture underneath.
Mr Campbell said he had seen calves pulling vegetation up by its roots because it had not been able to properly establish itself.
"There is greenness, but no bulk of feed," he said.
"September is a very critical month for cropping and for pasture and we got nothing. We've gone into this time in quite a dry state."
Over at Cassilis, Damon Soster - who earns his crust on 12,500 acres raising Angus cattle and sheep - described conditions as "hit and miss".
He said three wet summers leading into this drought got his property "back on track" in terms of groundwater and his stock had been grazing on grass that grew as a result of that time.
"Things aren't exactly booming and perfect, but we've had enough rainfall to kind of keep the grass ticking along," Mr Soster said.
"But we really need good settling rain to bulk up for winter. The country's what I call 'painted on'. A lot of it has got that green tinge but there's just no bulk to it. We've had enough rain to make it germinate and get the grass fresh, we just need it to keep raining."
Mr Soster said the isolated storms brought rain that was causing growth, but in some cases had been followed by days with temperatures in the high 30s or into the 40s, which quickly burnt away the greenery.
After about 100mm of rain on sections of his land in late November and December, some parts of his property appeared green while others remained dry.
"You've got to be under the right storms - in the right place," he said.
"It's on a knife's edge of either being a really, really good next 12 months or a really, really tough next 12 months, to be honest."
Merriwa and surrounds, the area west of Muswellbrook, and the Bulga region are in intense drought, while a large swathe of land surrounding those places, as well as parts of Port Stephens, Maitland and Dungog, are in drought conditions.
The remainder of the Hunter was classified as "drought affected" as of the latest NSW Department of Primary Industries update on New Year's Eve.
Hunter Water's records show that the region's total water storage as of January 4 was at 83 per cent capacity - down by 10.4 per cent compared with this time last year, and a 0.5 per cent drop from last week.
Storage levels decreased to 52.7 per cent at the height of the last drought in early 2020.
This week, Grahamstown Dam was at 86.3 per cent, Anna Bay Sandbeds was at 84.5 per cent, Tomago Sandbeds was at 75.8 per cent and Chichester Dam was at 71.1 per cent.
Chichester jumped from being at 53.6 per cent capacity at the end of November.
According to Water NSW, Glenbawn Dam is at 94 per cent and Lostock Dam is full.
Craig Murphy, who has a cattle farm at Blandford near Murrurundi, said many smaller dams that farmers used remained dry, though the groundwater level appeared good at his place, which would help him set up his winter crop.
He described the recent weather as "storm lotto".
"At least now we can get the country ready ... to be set up for a good autumn and winter," he said.
Mr Murphy said the value of cattle had significantly dropped in the lead-up to this drought - he had heard of some going for 60 to 70 per cent of their previous value.
Gundy farmer James Archibald said this drought was shorter than the previous one, but "bloody hell it's been pretty tough". He said rising interest rates were a key factor.
"It really makes a difference in the cattle trade," he said.
"The really big problem with it being dry was the cattle market was so bad. It also hit when all the cows were calving in spring.
"Managing the finance through this one was a lot harder, I felt, because all the cattle that you'd built up were suddenly worthless.
"It was just a tricky one to deal with."
Mr Archibald described the three wet summers leading into this drought as "bloody fantastic".
"That gave us mostly an opportunity to get our cattle numbers back up again," he said.
"I'm hoping the cattle will be OK here for another five or six weeks. We'll all need to make some money so we'll have to sell something and I imagine there'll be quite a lot of cattle that aren't pregnant because it was so dry. I imagine people will sell them.
"The bigger calves are getting towards 220kg, they're getting big enough to sell."
Back at Blandford, Mr Murphy said he was feeling positive, despite the uncertainty.
"Most farmers are optimists," he said.
"If you're not an optimist, you're not going to be in the game."
