BUILD it and they will come.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
And if it is built by one of our three levels of government, it seems the cost of building "it" will almost certainly blow out from what was originally envisaged during the announcement period - a happy time of photo opportunities for politicians in high-vis promising "on-time and on-budget".
Just over a fortnight ago, regular Newcastle Herald correspondent Denise Lindus Trummel expressed a commonly-held view on cost over-runs on projects steered by City of Newcastle (CON). She listed "the move to council's rented offices in Newcastle West, Supercars, the skate park on South Newcastle beach; all underestimated".
She might have added the demolition of the King Street car park. The cost of demolishing the near 60-year-old car park jumped from a budgeted $3.37 million to $6.97 million after the contractor found asbestos. Mere mortals - those without engineering degrees - might wonder why that asbestos was not found before work commenced.
The South Newcastle beach skate park, forecast to cost $11 million when it was announced by CoN back in 2018, will have racked up a bill of more than $20 million by the time it is completed.
The Newcastle Art Gallery expansion project will cost CoN ratepayers close to $30 million, which comes in at almost twice the amount originally forecast. Stage one of the Newcastle ocean baths which included the pools and promenade area, cost $18.25 million - inclusive of GST. That is $4.5 million more than when the tender was awarded.
But it's not just a CoN problem.
A NSW Auditor-General report back in 2017 found that Newcastle's light rail cost had risen from $255 million to $290 million. But a $35 million increase is a drop in a bucket compared to the swollen price tag for Sydney's Metro City and Southwest project to about $21.6 billion, up from an original forecast of $12 billion.
A decade ago, the Productivity Commission held an inquiry into public infrastructure in Australia. Poor scoping, inappropriate timing, lack of informed management and communication were among the reasons found for cost blowouts.
The Commission found there was an urgent need to comprehensively overhaul processes for assessing and developing public infrastructure projects.
Last November, the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) issued a report on the problem. Not surprisingly, many of the issues contained in the Productivity Commission's report remain problematic a decade later.
While there are dozens of examples of projects blowing out, Sydney's Allianz Stadium and WestConnex were huge projects delivered on time and to budget. And key aspects to that outcome, according to the CIS report, are easily identified. Some of those aspects I would think are givens.
Apparently not.
Such aspects include defining the project properly with a competent design. Capturing 'whole of life' value for the project. Once construction starts, don't change the design. Competent and experienced personnel is essential. Effective project management practices should be implemented, including robust planning, accurate cost estimation, comprehensive risk management, strong stakeholder engagement, regular monitoring and reporting, proactive issue resolution, and adherence to industry best practices.
Which leads me back to the biggest project Newcastle has ever seen in terms of the way it would change the city.
If it happens.
I want to believe in the federal government's determination to deliver high-speed rail between Newcastle and Sydney and that requires a leap of faith.
If - and it really is a gargantuan if - newly appointed High-Speed Rail Authority CEO Tim Parker does manage to get trains running between Newcastle and Sydney at a reduced time of around 60 minutes, via a project delivered on time and on budget, it will be a terrific achievement.
But given the tendency for government backed projects to have cost blowouts and be running years late it won't just be a terrific achievement, it will be a bloody miracle.
