'Invincible' or 'irretrievable': Too early to make judgement calls on AFL sides

He's had to deal with plenty of disappointment amidst the odd triumph, like as a player missing out on North Melbourne's 1996 premiership because of a knee injury, or coaching the Swans in three losing grand finals, two of which they started favourite to win.

It's probably just as well, too.

Because if you listen to some of the AFL commentariat, we might as well engrave the 2024 premiership right now and simply hand it over to the Swans already. Somebody, preferably the Swans' coach, needs to retain some perspective.

Mind you, were the season called to a premature halt right now, Sydney would absolutely deserve it. There's every chance that come next weekend (when second-placed Carlton has a bye), the Swans will be three games clear on top of the ladder with a 12-1 win-loss record.

They're currently ranked No.1 for attack, No.2 for defence, and rated top four in no fewer than 26 statistical categories.

Isaac Heeney is a runaway leader of the AFL Coaches' Association player of the year award, and he and teammates Chad Warner and Errol Gulden are all among the top nine vote-getters.

If Sydney beats Adelaide on Saturday night, as you'd expect, the Swans' resultant three-game break on the rest of the competition after 13 games would be the biggest advantage held by any team that late in a season since West Coast led Melbourne by three games in 2005.

What's significant about that? It's that West Coast didn't end up winning the premiership, though it did come awfully close, losing to Sydney by just four points in an epic grand final.

Melbourne, for what it's worth, bowed out of September in week one of the finals. And the eventual premier? The Swans at that stage were only fifth.

How can we possibly know for sure Sydney will still be going this well come September, or that other teams not faring so well now won't hit a similar vein of form?

After all, only last year, GWS, which was 15th on the ladder 12 rounds into the season, and Carlton, 15th after 15 rounds, were able to turn it around to the extent both ended up reaching the preliminary final.

Indeed, already this year, reigning premier Collingwood was all but written off after losing its first three games.

The Pies are now back up to sixth and climbing, having lost just once in their last 10 outings.

But it seems no matter how many times we're told the AFL season is a marathon not a sprint, we (actually, I'd like to think not all of us, but many) continue to declare this or that team invincible, and other teams' fortunes irretrievable.

It's those who've been personally scarred who know best the foolishness of doing so.

Longmire, for example, before finally being part of a North Melbourne premiership in 1999, witnessed first-hand the Kangaroos, deemed close to certainties against Adelaide on grand final day 1998, losing the seemingly unlosable.

Having finished three games ahead of the Crows on the ladder and winning 11 games straight in the lead-up, North Melbourne blew a massive territorial advantage in the first half on the big day with shocking kicking (6.15) and were run over in the second.

Longmire's Swans, too, went into two of those three losing grand finals (2014 and 2016) as reasonably warm favourites and came out on the wrong side of the ledger.

And you don't need to remind triple Geelong premiership player Jimmy Bartel about the uncertainty of even the surest-looking thing.

It's the one the Cats let slip against Hawthorn in 2008 after having won 23 of 24 games in the lead-up to the grand final which is still something of a thorn in the side.

Geelong won its first eight games of the season, dropped one to Collingwood, then rattled off 15 wins on the trot until grand final day.

Like North in 1998, it squandered early opportunity, kicking 1.9 in the second quarter. But the Hawks ran all over the Cats in the finish.

"We were flying until the last third of the season, by when we were just winning games on talent," Bartel recalled on 3AW on Monday.

"Injuries started to play a factor, but Hawthorn were the best team for the last six weeks of the season. You look for the sides that are absolutely peaking from about round 18 or 19 on, they're the ones who go on and win the flag."

That may well be Sydney in 2024, too.

And after having repeatedly come so close since their last premiership in 2012, who'd deny the Swans?

But come on folks, mid-June is still a long way from September.

There's a lot still to play out. And saying this flag is still anyone's isn't a cliché, it's simply fact.