French voters are being called to the polls for an exceptional moment in their political history - the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country's first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation - or no majority emerging at all.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
The outcome of the vote - with the first round on Sunday followed by a second on July 7 - and a hasty campaign remains highly uncertain.
Three major political blocs are competing - the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition that includes centre-left, greens and hard-left forces.
HOW IT WORKS
* The French system is not proportionate to nationwide support for a party, with legislators elected by district, and a parliamentary candidate requiring more than 50 per cent of the day's vote to be elected outright Sunday
* Failing that, the top two contenders, alongside anyone else who won support from more than 12.5 per cent of registered voters, go forward to a second round
* In some cases, three or four people make it to the second round, though some may step aside to improve the chances of another contender - a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates
* Key party leaders are expected to unveil their strategy in between the two rounds which makes the result of the second round highly uncertain, and dependent on political manoeuvring and how voters react
* The far-right National Rally, ahead in all pre-election opinion polls, hopes to win an absolute majority, or at least 289 out of the 577 seats
* The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France's two houses of parliament and has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives
* Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term
COHABITATION
* If another political force than Macron's centrist alliance gets a majority, he will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority - a situation called "cohabitation" in which the government would implement policies that diverge from the president's plan
* France's modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002
* The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills but in the case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister, political historian Jean Garrigues said
* The president is weakened at home during cohabitation but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defence because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties
* The president is also the commander-in-chief of France's armed forces and is the one holding the nuclear codes
* "It's possible for the president to prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister's projects since he has the power to sign or not sign the government's ordinances or decrees," Garrigues said, adding the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus overriding the president's reluctance
DEFENCE AND FOREIGN POLICY
* During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policies were considered the informal "reserved field" of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad
* Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition's views in these areas differ radically from Macron's approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation
* According to the Constitution, while "the president is the head of the military, it's the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal", Garrigues said
* The National Rally's president, Jordan Bardella, said that if he were to become prime minister he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine - a possibility Macron has not ruled out - and would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself
* If the leftist coalition was to win the elections, it could disrupt France's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East
* The New Popular Front's platform plans to "immediately recognise the Palestinian state" and "break with the French government's guilty support" for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government
IF THERE IS NO MAJORITY ...
* The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly - this was the case of Macron's own centrist alliance since 2022
* The National Rally has said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together
* The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences
* If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26 to August 11 Olympics in Paris, Garrigues said a "transition period" is not ruled out, during which Macron's centrist government would "still be in charge of current affairs" pending further decisions
Australian Associated Press
